Blog : financial risk

Jeff Voudrie’s Weekly Stock Market Commentary – October 20, 2015

Jeff Voudrie’s Weekly Stock Market Commentary – October 20, 2015

Jeff’s Weekly Stock Market Commentary: Retirement

Those 5-10 years or more from retirement have time and money on their side.

For those who are retired or near retirement, the number one priority must be to avoid significant losses. Many investors experienced losses of 30-60% in the crash of 2000-2003 and then again in the crash of 2007-2009. Depending on their age at the time, those who were still working and contributing to their 401k’s recovered over the ensuing years.

Keep in mind, though, that much of that recovery occurred because they continued to put more money in on a monthly basis. Their monthly contributions over the years 2000-2002 and/or 2007-2009 went into a market that had retreated by almost 50% from the highs. As the markets resumed their uptrend their accounts gained ground quickly.

weekly-stock-marketThat taught some investors that they will be fine as long as they hang in there because the markets will eventually recover and all will be fine. That may be true for those that are still 5-10 years or more away from retirement. They are probably at the highest salary level of their careers and are able to contribute a higher percentage of their income to their retirement nest egg. They have time and their income on their side.

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Jeff Voudrie’s Weekly Stock Market Commentary – July 28th, 2015

Jeff Voudrie’s Weekly Stock Market Commentary – July 28th, 2015

Jeff’s Weekly Stock Market Commentary

Are you comfortable putting significant new money to work buying stocks when they are at or near all-time highs? For instance, the S&P 500 hit an all-time high of 1561.80 on October 12, 2007, almost 5 years to the day after the low in 2002.

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There wasn’t anything special that happened on that October day in 2007—nothing that screamed “Get Out!” In fact, based on how the markets had been behaving, buying stocks may have been a very rational decision. The Fed was talking about the punchbowl and was confident in their ability to manage the economy implying there was nothing to worry about and there was clear sailing ahead.

It wasn’t until July the following year that the main part of the crash started. There were warning signs, though because the market had already declined 20% by then. Most people weren’t paying attention to the underlying market currents and they ended up losing another 36% in the following months.

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Jeff Voudrie’s Weekly Stock Market Commentary – May 4, 2015

Jeff Voudrie’s Weekly Stock Market Commentary – May 4, 2015

Jeff’s Weekly Stock Market Commentary

Last week was a difficult week for those of us that own bond ETFs like symbol TLT and EDV because we saw bond yields jump which resulted in the value of our positions going down.  The recent statement by the Federal Reserve is partly responsible because the statement introduced uncertainty and confusion as to the direction of interest rates.

According to one research firm, last week saw the biggest week-over-week percentage gain in global bond yields ever. For instance, the Netherland’s 10yr bond had a 73% move in yield. The 10 year German Bund had a whopping 157% move in a single week!

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Jeff Voudrie’s Weekly Stock Market Commentary – April 13, 2015

Jeff Voudrie’s Weekly Stock Market Commentary – April 13, 2015

Trending Indicators

US Stock Market                 Trending Up

Canadian Stk Mkt              Trending UP

US Bond Yields                    Yields Trending Down (means prices go up)

Jeff’s Weekly Stock Market Commentary

Over the last six months, I have taken the position that global growth has been slowing and that it will result in slowing growth here in the United States. Keep in mind that I am not saying that the U.S. economy is going to enter into a recession. Instead, I am referring to the rate of change and the slope of the growth curve.

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