Jeff Voudrie’s Weekly Stock Market Commentary – Nov. 17th, 2014

Jeff Voudrie’s Weekly Stock Market Commentary – Nov. 17th, 2014

Jeff Voudrie’s Weekly Stock Market Commentary – Nov. 17th, 2014

Trending Indicators

US Stock Market                 Trending Up *

Canadian Stk Mkt              Trending Down

US Bond Yields                    Yield’s Trending Down

Jeff’s Weekly Stock Market Commentary:

The major US stock market indexes were little changed in the last week, except for the NASDAQ which was up 1.2%. The S&P 500, the DJIA and the NASDAQ have surged off their mid-October lows and have set new all-time highs. The Russell 2000 has not. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 10.36%; the DJIA 6.38% and the Russell 2000 is barely positive at 0.91%. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) is up 19.74%. Yes, lower-volatility Treasury bonds continue to out-perform the stock indexes on both a relative and absolute basis.

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Those of you that read my weekly commentary are aware that I have not participated in this latest equity surge and that I have most of my clients positioned more heavily in bonds and cash. Frankly, I am not concerned that I missed the most recent no-volume equity ramp because with growth slowing, interest rates falling and most major economies around the world in recession there is little chance that we are in the beginning stages of the Next Great Bull Market. Instead, there are significant risks of a correction that could literally happen at any time.

The U.S. stock market trend indicator that I use signaled an uptrend on Wednesday of last week, but there underlying components involved in that indicator continue to weaken. In other words, technically, the trend has changed but caution is warranted. So I remain cautious. Based on the CFTC futures and options contracts the majority of investors are levered long the S&P 500 while being short the US 10-year Treasury bond. That has been a losing position for most of this year and if it starts to go against them again, the stock market will correct and bond yields will go down. I’ll stick with bonds.

Lastly, I just returned from the National Security Investment Consultant Institute’s (NSIC) founder’s class. I’m humbled to be 1 of roughly 20 financial advisors nationwide that was asked to attend this prestigious, ground-breaking event. The purpose and mission of the NSIC is to train and equip investment advisors about national security issues and so they can further protect their clients.

Presenters included Kevin Freeman, CFA (author of Secret Weapon and Game Plan), Lt. Gen. William G. “Jerry” Boykin (USA Ret.), Patrick M. Byrne, Ph.D (Founder and CEO of Overstock.com), Frank Gaffney, Jr. (Founder and President of the Center For Security Policy in Washington D.C.), Governor Frank Keating, John Lenczowski, Ph.D (Founder and President of The Institute Of World Politics who was Director of European and Soviet affairs at the National Security Council and an advisor to Ronald Reagan), Joe Schmidt (Inspector General of the Department Of Defense from 2002-2005) and Rod D. Martin, JD (pre-IPO member of Paypal startup, Hedge Fund Manager, former policy director for Governor Mike Huckabee).

Over the next days, weeks and months I will be sharing much more regarding the real and consequential threats faced by today’s investors. Many of the retired investors that I speak to understand that these are critical times for our nation and that we are under attack on many fronts. And based on the private briefings I was part of last week, those concerns are warranted and, if anything, are not getting the attention they deserve. I, for one, want to change that.

Have a wonderful and Blessed week!

 

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